Ukushisa kakhulu komhlaba - iqiniso elibuhlungu ebesilokhu silibuka iminyaka eminingi, kungakhathalekile umbono wososayensi. Ukuze wenze lokhu, kwanele nje ukubuza mayelana namandla okushisa okujwayelekile eMhlabeni.
Idatha enjalo ingatholakala futhi ihlaziywe emithonjeni emithathu ngasikhathi sinye:
- Ingosi Yezokuphatha Yasemkhathini Kazwelonke yase-US;
- Inyuvesi yase-East Anglia Portal;
- Indawo yeNASA, noma kunalokho, iGoddard Institute for Space Research.
Izithombe zeGrinnell Glacier eGlacier National Park (Canada) ngo-1940 nango-2006.
Kuyini Ukufudumala Komhlaba Wonke?
Ukushisa kakhulu komhlaba imele ukwanda okuhamba kancane kodwa okungaguquki ezingeni lenkomba yesilinganiso sokushisa kwaminyaka yonke. Izizathu zalesi simo zibizwa ngokuhlukahluka okungenamkhawulo, kusuka kukwanda komsebenzi welanga kuya emiphumeleni yemisebenzi yabantu.
Ukufudumala okunjalo akubonakali kuphela ngezinkomba eziqondile zokushisa - kungalandelelwa ngokusobala ngemininingwane engaqondile:
- Shintsha futhi wande emazingeni olwandle (lezi zinkomba zirekhodwa ngezintambo zokubheka ezizimele). Lesi simo sichazwa ngokwanda okuyisisekelo kwamanzi ngaphansi kwethonya lokukhuphuka kwezinga lokushisa;
- Ukunciphisa indawo yeqhwa neqhwa e-Arctic;
- Ukuncibilika kwenqwaba yeqhwa.
Kodwa-ke, ososayensi abaningi bayawusekela umqondo wokuzibandakanya okusebenzayo kwesintu kule nqubo.
Inkinga yokufudumala komhlaba
Izinkulungwane zeminyaka, isintu, singayigodli iplanethi, besiyisebenzisela izinhloso zaso. Ukuvela kwe-megalopolises, ukukhishwa kwamaminerali, ukubhujiswa kwezipho zemvelo - izinyoni, izilwane, ukuqothulwa kwamahlathi.
Akumangazi ukuthi imvelo ilungiselela ukusishaya ngamandla, ukuze umuntu abhekane nayo yonke imiphumela yokuziphatha okunjalo kuye: phela imvelo izoba khona ngokuphelele ngaphandle kwethu, kepha umuntu akakwazi ukuphila ngaphandle kwemithombo yemvelo.
Futhi, okokuqala, lapho bekhuluma ngemiphumela enjalo, basho ngqo ukufudumala kwembulunga yonke, okungaphenduka kube yinhlekelele hhayi kubantu kuphela, kodwa nakuzo zonke izinto eziphilayo eMhlabeni.
Ijubane lale nqubo, elibhekwe emashumini eminyaka adlule, alinalutho olufanayo kule minyaka eyizinkulungwane ezimbili eyedlule. Futhi isilinganiso soshintsho olwenzeka eMhlabeni, ngokusho kososayensi baseSwitzerland University of Bern, asinakuqhathaniswa ngisho neLittle Age Age eyaziwa yibo bonke abantwana besikole (yaqala ngekhulu le-14 kuya kwele-19).
Izimbangela zokufudumala kwembulunga yonke
Ukufudumala kwembulunga yonke kungenye yezinkinga ezibaluleke kakhulu kwezemvelo namuhla. Futhi le nqubo iyashesha futhi iyaqhubeka ngenkuthalo ngaphansi kwethonya lezinto eziningi ezimbi.
Ososayensi babiza izimbangela ezilandelayo zenqubo yokufudumala njengeziyinhloko futhi ezibucayi emvelweni:
- Ukwanda kokwakhiwa komkhathi wezinga le-carbon dioxide nokunye ukungcola okuyingozi: i-nitrogen, i-methane nokunye okunjalo. Lokhu kungenxa yokusebenza okunamandla kwezitshalo nezimboni, ukusebenza kwezimoto, kanye nomthelela omubi kakhulu esimweni semvelo obangelwa izinhlekelele zemvelo ezahlukahlukene: izingozi ezinkulu, ukuqhuma, imililo.
- Ukukhiqizwa kwesitimu ngenxa yokwanda kwamazinga okushisa komoya. Ngokubuka kwalesi simo, amanzi oMhlaba (imifula, amachibi, izilwandle) aqala ukuhwamuka ngenkuthalo - futhi uma le nqubo iqhubeka ngesilinganiso esifanayo, eminyakeni eyikhulu ezayo, amanzi oLwandlekazi Lomhlaba angancipha kakhulu.
- Ukuncibilika kwezinguzunga zeqhwa, okufaka isandla ekwandeni kwamazinga olwandle. Futhi, ngenxa yalokho, ugu lwamazwekazi lugcwala izikhukhula, okusho ngokuzenzakalela izikhukhula nokubhujiswa kwezindawo zokuhlala.
Le nqubo ihambisana nokukhishwa kwegesi eyingozi emkhathini - i-methane, nokuqhubeka kwayo ukungcola.
Imiphumela yokushisa komhlaba
Ukufudumala kwembulunga yonke kubeka ubungozi obukhulu esintwini, futhi, ngaphezu kwakho konke, kuyadingeka ukubona yonke imiphumela yale nqubo engahlehliseki:
- Ukukhula kwesilinganiso sokushisa saminyaka yonke: kukhula ngokuqhubekayo minyaka yonke, okushiwo ngososayensi ngokuzisola;
- Ukuncibilika kwezinguzunga zeqhwa, okungekho noyedwa ophikisana nakho: isibonelo, inguzunga yeqhwa yase-Argentina i-Uppsala (indawo yayo ingama-250 km2), okwake kwaba ngenye yezinto eziphawuleka kakhulu ezwenikazi, kuncibilika inhlekelele engamamitha ayi-200 ngonyaka;
- Ukwanda kwezinga lamanzi olwandle.
Ngenxa yokuncibilika kwezinguzunga zeqhwa (ikakhulukazi iGreenland, i-Antarctica, i-Arctic), izinga lamanzi lenyuka minyaka yonke - manje selishintshe cishe ngamamitha angama-20.
- Izinhlobo eziningi zezilwane zizothinteka;
- Inani lemvula lizokhuphuka, futhi kwezinye izindawo, kunalokho, kuzokwakhiwa isimo sezulu esomile.
Umphumela wokufudumala kwembulunga yonke namuhla
Kuze kube manje, ososayensi bayagcizelela (futhi izifundo zabo sezishicilelwe kumajenali abucayi esayensi i-Nature and Nature Geoscience) ukuthi labo abangabazayo ngemibono eyamukelwa ngokujwayelekile yokonakalisa ukufudumala kwezulu banamaphuzu amancane abekiwe.
Ososayensi badwebe igrafu yokuguquka kwesimo sezulu eminyakeni eyizinkulungwane ezimbili eyedlule, okukhombisa ngokusobala ukuthi inqubo yokufudumala eyenzeka namuhla ayinazo izilinganiso ngokulingana nangesilinganiso.
Mayelana nalokhu, abalandeli benkolelo yokuthi ushintsho olwenzeka emvelweni namuhla lwenzeka ngezikhathi ezithile, futhi ngemuva kwalokho kuzoshintshwa inkathi yokupholisa, kufanele bavume ukungahambelani kwemibono enjalo. Lokhu kuhlaziywa kusekelwe ocwaningweni olunzulu olufana nezinguquko zamakhorali, ukutadishwa kwamasongo waminyaka yonke, kanye nokuhlaziywa kwezimo zesikhumba sedwala. Okwamanje, indawo yomhlaba emhlabeni nayo isishintshile - inyuke ngama-square metres ayizinkulungwane ezingama-58. km kule minyaka engamashumi amathathu edlule.
Ngisho nangezikhathi zezinguquko zesimo sezulu, ezazibizwa ngokuthi yi "Medieval Climatic Optimum" (esikhathini esifinyelela ku-1250 AD), ngenkathi inkathi yesimo sezulu esifudumele ibusa emhlabeni, zonke izinguquko zihlobene neNyakatho Nenkabazwe kuphela, futhi azibathintanga kanjalo okuningi - kungabi ngaphezu kwama-40% wobuso bonke beplanethi.
Futhi ukufudumala okuqhubekayo sekuvele kumboza cishe wonke umhlaba - cishe amaphesenti angama-98 endawo yoMhlaba.
Kungakho ochwepheshe begcizelela ukungahambisani okuphelele kwezimpikiswano zalabo abangabazayo ngenqubo yokufudumala futhi babuze ukungakaze kwenzeke kwezinqubo ezibonwayo namuhla, kanye nokungahleleki kwazo okungenamibandela.
Ukufudumala kwembulunga yonke eRussia
Izazi zesimo sezulu zanamuhla zixwayisa ngokujulile: ezweni lethu, isimo sezulu siya sifudumala ngezinga eliphakeme kakhulu kunalolo elikhona emhlabeni wonke - ngokuvamile, izikhathi ezingama-2.5. Ososayensi abaningi bahlola le nqubo ngemibono ehlukene: ngokwesibonelo, kunombono wokuthi iRussia, njengezwe elisenyakatho nelibandayo, lizozuza kuphela kulezi zinguquko futhi lithole nenzuzo ethile.
Kepha uma uhlola lolu daba ngombono onezinhlobonhlobo eziningi, kusobala ukuthi izinzuzo ezingaba khona azikwazi ukuvala umonakalo ozobangelwa ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu okuqhubekayo emnothweni wezwe, kanye nokuba khona kwabantu bebonke. Namuhla, ngokocwaningo oluningi, isilinganiso sokushisa saminyaka yonke engxenyeni yezwe laseYurophu sikhula njalo eminyakeni eyishumi ngo-0.4% obalulekile.
Izinkomba ezinjalo zenguquko zibangelwa indawo yensimu yezwe: olwandle, ukufudumala nemiphumela yako akubonakali kangako ngenxa yobukhulu bezindawo, ngenkathi emhlabeni konke okwenzekayo kushintsha ngokungathí sina futhi ngokushesha okukhulu.
Isibonelo, e-Arctic, inqubo yokufudumala isebenza kakhulu - lapha sikhuluma ngokwanda okuphindwe kathathu kokuguquguquka kwezimo zezulu uma kuqhathaniswa nayo yonke insimu. Ososayensi babikezela ukuthi vele ngo-2050, iqhwa e-Arctic lizobonwa kuphela ngezikhathi ezithile, ebusika.
Ukufudumala kusho usongo kwinani elikhulu lezinto eziphilayo eRussia, kanye nemboni yayo kanye nesimo sonke sezomnotho, ingasaphathwa impilo yezakhamuzi zezwe.
Imephu efudumele eRussia
Kodwa-ke, akuyona yonke into elula kangako: kukhona labo abaphikisana ngokuthi ukufudumala kwezwe lethu kungaholela ezinzuzweni ezinkulu:
- Isivuno sizokhula
Le mpikiswano evame kakhulu ukuzwakala ivuna ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu: kuvame ukushiwo ukuthi lesi simo sezinto sizokwenza ukuthi kwandiswe kakhulu indawo yokulima inani elikhulu lezitshalo. Lokhu kusho ukuthi kuzokwenzeka, ngokukhulunywayo, ukuhlwanyela ukolweni eNyakatho, bese ulinda isivuno samapentshisi ebangeni eliphakathi.
Kepha labo abagqugquzela impikiswano enjalo kabanaki ukuthi izilimo eziyinhloko zitshalwa ezindaweni eziseningizimu zaleli zwe. Futhi kulapho imboni yezolimo izobhekana nobunzima obukhulu ngenxa yesimo sezulu esomile.
Isibonelo, ngo-2010, ngenxa yehlobo elomile elomile, ingxenye yesithathu yesivuno esiphelele sokudla okusanhlamvu yashabalala, kwathi ngo-2012 lezi zibalo zasondela kwikota. Ukulahleka phakathi nale minyaka emibili eshisayo kwaba cishe ama-ruble angama-300 billion.
Kokubili izinkathi zokoma nemvula enamandla kunomthelela omubi kakhulu emisebenzini yezolimo: e2019, izinhlekelele ezinjalo zesimo sezulu ezifundeni ezingaba ngu-20 zaphoqa ukwethulwa kohulumeni ophuthumayo kwezolimo.
- Ukunciphisa izinga lezindleko ezihambisana nokufakwa
Kaningi, phakathi "kokunethezeka" kokufudumala, abanye ososayensi bathi ukwehla kwezindleko ezihlobene ngqo nokushisa izindlu. Kepha nalapha futhi, konke akuyona into ecacile. Ngempela, inkathi yokushisa uqobo izoshintsha ubude bayo, kepha ngokuhambisana nalezi zinguquko, kuzoba nesidingo somoya opholile. Futhi le nto iyindleko enkulu kakhulu.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukushisa kuzophazamisa impilo yabantu: ingozi yezifo eziwumshayabhuqe, nokwehla kwesikhathi sokuphila ngaphansi kwethonya lezinhliziyo, izifo zamaphaphu nezinye izinkinga kubantu asebekhulile.
Kungenxa yokufudumala ukuthi inani lezinhlayiya ezibangela ukungezwani komzimba emoyeni (impova nokunye okunjalo) kuyanda, okuthinta kabi impilo yabantu - ikakhulukazi labo abahlushwa izinkinga zamaphaphu (isibonelo, isifuba somoya).
Ngakho-ke, kwakungu-2010, ngokusho kwe-UN, futhi izinga layo lokushisa eliphakeme lalisendaweni yesi-7 ezingeni lezinhlekelele ezibulalayo: enhlokodolobha yaseRussia phakathi nalesi sikhathi, amazinga okufa akhuphuke ngamaphesenti angama-50.7, kanti ukushisa okungajwayelekile endaweni yaseYurophu yaleli zwe kwabulala okungenani abantu abayizinkulungwane ezingama-55.
- Shintsha ngokunethezeka kwesimo sezulu
Izimo zemvelo ezibangelwe ukufudumala kwaba yimbangela yezinkinga hhayi kuphela ezakhiweni zezimboni zezolimo, kodwa futhi zithinte nezinga lokuphila lamaRussia.
Kule minyaka engama-20 edlule, inani lezingozi eziyingozi zemvelo ezenzeka minyaka yonke liphindaphindwe kabili ezweni: isichotho, izikhukhula, izihlambi, isomiso nokunye okuningi.
Isibonelo, endaweni yaseKhabarovsk, kanye nasezifundeni eziseduze (i-Irkutsk ne-Amur), inani elikhulu lemigwaqo nezakhiwo licwile ngaphansi kwamanzi. Mayelana nalokhu, kwenzeka ukukhishwa kwabantu abaningi, ngenxa yenani elikhulu lezisulu nabantu abalahlekile, kanye nezinkinga ezihambisana nokunqanyulwa kwezixhumanisi zezokuthutha.
Ezifundeni zaseNyakatho, ukwanda komswakama sekuyimbangela eqondile yezinguquko nokubhujiswa okuhambisana nengqalasizinda yasedolobheni. Izakhiwo eziningi bezingakalungi ngenxa yethonya lokukhuphuka kwempuphu nokushintsha kaningi kwezinkomba zokushisa ngesikhathi esifushane - ngaphansi kweminyaka eyishumi.
- Ukunwetshwa kwesikhathi sokuzulazula (ikakhulukazi, ku-Northern Sea Route)
Ukuncibilika nokuncipha kwendawo eneqhwa (nendawo yalo yakha cishe amaphesenti angama-63 ezwe lethu) kungenye yezinto eziyingozi kakhulu ezilethwa ukufudumala. Kule ndawo, kunenqwaba yemigwaqo nemigwaqo emikhulu, kepha futhi namadolobha, amabhizinisi, nezinye izikhungo zezimboni - futhi zonke zakhiwa kucatshangelwa imininingwane yenhlabathi efriziwe. Ushintsho olunjalo lube usongo kuyo yonke ingqalasizinda - ngenxa yayo, kuqhuma amapayipi, amabhilidi awe, nezinye izimo eziphuthumayo ziyenzeka.
Ngenxa yombiko wango-2017 ohlinzekwe yisimo sezulu seRoshydrometeorological Center, idolobha elisenyakatho yeNorilsk lingaziqhayisa ngenani lezindlu ezacekeleka futhi zalimala ngenxa yokuguquguquka kwenhlabathi: zaziziningi kunangesigamu sekhulu leminyaka esedlule.
Ngasikhathi sinye nalezi zinkinga, ukwehla kwendawo eneqhwa ngokuzenzekelayo kuba imbangela yokwanda kwenani lokugeleza kwemifula - futhi lokhu kubangela izikhukhula ezimbi.
Ukulwa nokushisa komhlaba
Ngaphezu kwenkinga yokufudumala kwembulunga yonke, ngokwemvelo kunezici (zombili ezemvelo kanye ne-anthropogenic) ezifaka isandla enqubweni yokwehla kwayo. Okokuqala, imisinga yolwandle ifaka isandla kakhulu kule nqubo. Ngakho-ke, muva nje, ukwehla eGulf Stream kuqashelwe, kanye nokwehla kwezinga lokushisa e-Arctic.
Izindlela zokulwa nokufudumala kanye nendlela ephumelela kunazo zonke futhi ephumelelayo yokuxazulula le nkinga zifaka isimo sengqondo esinengqondo endabeni yokushintshaniswa kwezinsizakusebenza ngokunciphisa izinga lokukhishwa kwegesi ebamba ukushisa.
Umphakathi womhlaba wenza yonke imizamo yokusuka ezindleleni ezivamile zokuphehla amandla, iningi lawo elihlotshaniswa nokusha kwezakhi zekhabhoni, liye kwezinye izindlela zokuthola uphethiloli. Ukusetshenziswa kwamapaneli elanga, ezinye izikhungo zokuphehla ugesi (umoya, ukushisa komhlaba nezinye) nokunye okunjalo kuyenziwa.
Ngasikhathi sinye, intuthuko, kanye nenqubo yokwenza ngcono imibhalo yokulawula, ehlose ukunciphisa izinga lokukhishwa kwegesi ekhipha ukushisa, ayibalulekanga kangako.
Mayelana nalokhu, amazwe amaningi omhlaba asigunyazile isivumelwano sohlaka lwenhlangano yezizwe i-UN Framework on Climate Change, esenezelwe yi-Kyoto Protocol. Ngasikhathi sinye, imithetho elawula ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni ezingeni likahulumeni nayo idlala indima enkulu ekuxazululeni le nkinga.
Ukubhekana Nezinkinga Zokufudumala Komhlaba
Iqembu lososayensi abavela enyuvesi eGreat Britain (iCambridge edumile) selisukumele udaba lokuhlaziya iziphakamiso zokusindisa umhlaba ekufudumaleni. Lesi sinyathelo sasekelwa ngusolwazi owaziwayo uDavid King, ogcizelela ukuthi okwamanje izindlela ezihlongozwayo azikwazi ukusebenza futhi zivimbele ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu okusondelayo. Ngakho-ke, ukusekelwa kwesikhungo esikhethekile esiqaliswe nguye kwasekelwa, okubandakanya ukusebenzisana kwalolu daba. Ososayensi bayo baqinisekisa ukuthi imizamo nezinyathelo ezenziwe esikhathini esizayo esiseduze kakhulu zizothatha isinqumo endabeni yekusasa lesintu, futhi le nkinga manje ingenye ebaluleke kakhulu.
USolwazi David King
Futhi umsebenzi oyinhloko walesi sikhungo awusebenzi nje kuphela hhayi umsebenzi omningi ngamaphrojekthi we-geoengineering kanye nokuhlolwa kwawo okuqondile ngokubuka kokuphazamiseka enqubweni yokufudumala, kepha futhi nokuxazulula izinkinga zesimo sezulu. Lesi sikhungo sesibe yingxenye ebalulekile yomkhankaso wale nyuvesi, obizwa nge- "A future without Greenhouse Gases," lapho kufanele ubambisane nososayensi bezulu, onjiniyela kanye nezazi zezenhlalo.
Phakathi kweziphakamiso zesikhungo sokuxazulula inkinga yokufudumala, kunezinketho ezithokozisayo futhi ezihlukile:
- ukususwa kwe-CO2 emkhathini womhlaba nokulahlwa kwe-carbon dioxide. Ukuhluka okuthokozisayo komqondo osuvele wafundwa wokubanjwa kwe-CO2 kusukela ekwakhekeni komkhathi, okususelwa ekucabangeni kokukhishwa kwe-carbon dioxide esiteji sezitshalo zamandla (amalahle noma igesi) nokungcwatshwa kwawo ngaphansi koqweqwe lomhlaba. Ngakho-ke, ukwakhiwa kwephrojekthi yokulinga yokusetshenziswa kwe-carbon dioxide sekuvele kwethulwe eSouth Wales ngokubambisana nenkampani ye-metallurgical Tata Steel.
- Ukufafaza usawoti endaweni eseWorld Ocean. Lo mbono ungenye yezinto ezifinyelela kude futhi ikuvumela ukuthi ushintshe izinga lokubonisa kwezingqimba ezinamafu emkhathini phezu kwezigxobo zomhlaba. Ngale njongo, kubhekwa amathuba okufafaza amanzi olwandle kusetshenziswa ama-hydrants wamandla andisiwe, azofakwa emikhunjini ehamba olwandle enokulawulwa okuzenzakalelayo ezindaweni ezisenyakatho. Kuze kube manje, kuhlongozwa ukuba kufuthwe amanzi olwandle kusetshenziswa ama-hydrants anamandla afakwe emikhunjini ezenzakalelayo emanzini asezindaweni ezibandayo.
Ngenxa yalokhu, ama-microdroplets esixazululo azokwakhiwa emoyeni, ngosizo lokuthi ifu lizovela ngezinga elikhulile le-albedo (ngamanye amagama, ukubukeka) - futhi nesithunzi sayo kuzothinta inqubo yokupholisa yamanzi nomoya.
- Ukuhlwanyela indawo yolwandle ngamasiko aphilayo algae. Kusetshenziswa le ndlela, kulindeleke ukuthi kwandise ukumuncwa kwe-carbon dioxide. Uhlelo olunjalo luhlinzeka ngenqubo yokufafaza insimbi ngendlela yempuphu phezu kwekholamu lamanzi, evuselela ukukhiqizwa kwe-phytoplankton.
Ezinye zalezi zintuthuko zibandakanya ukuphindaphindeka kwamakhorali e-GMO, angakwazi ukumelana namazinga okushisa aphansi emanzini, nokunothiswa kwamanzi asolwandle ngamakhemikhali anciphisa i-asidi yawo.
Imiphumela yokuwa okuqagulwe ososayensi ngenxa yokufudumala kwembulunga yonke ngokuqinisekile isongela inhlekelele, kepha akuyona yonke into ebaluleke kangako. Ngakho-ke, isintu sazi inani elikhulu lezibonelo lapho ukunxanela impilo, naphezu kwakho konke, kunqoba ukunqoba. Thatha, isibonelo, i-Ice Age efanayo eyaziwa. Ososayensi abaningi bathambekele ekukholweni ukuthi inqubo yokufudumala akuyona inhlobo ethile yenhlekelele, kepha ibhekisa kuphela enkathini ethile yesimo sezulu eMhlabeni, eyenzeka kuwo wonke umlando wawo.
Isintu besilokhu senza imizamo yokuthuthukisa isimo seplanethi isikhathi eside impela - futhi, ngokuqhubeka emoyeni ofanayo, sinamathuba onke okusinda kule nkathi ngengozi encane.
Izibonelo zokufudumala kwembulunga yonke emhlabeni esikhathini sethu:
- Inguzunga yeqhwa i-Uppsala ePatagonia (Argentina)
2. Izintaba e-Austria, ngo-1875 nango-2005
